The annual national phosphate compound fertilizer conference is about to open, and at this time of year, the market for the next year of the various tariff policy speculation will be a "hundred flowers bloom" spectacular scene.Perhaps because the export window has completely let go of this year, tax rate is not high, enterprises are also some embarrassed again beg for policy support, so it was not until late October the market appeared to drop tariffs, but part of the enterprise is in hot water, because in the first three quarters of exports is larger, the international flat in the fourth quarter demand, excess pressure appeared again.

But the industry calls for the elimination of fertilizer export tariffs, I think this possibility is low.The main considerations are as follows:

First, full liberalisation of the fertiliser export market risks reviving some of the country's energy-intensive, polluting and inefficient capacity that is about to be phased out, while the country is committed to zero growth in fertiliser use by 2020, contrary to its development strategy.On the other hand, the main exports of fertilizer for urea and diammonium, both are overcapacity, comprehensive national cancelled this year season export window, but because of the early stage of the supply is relatively full, and the two kinds of fertilizer in the fourth quarter back into the bottleneck, fob exports are weakening gradually, and even the international market in our country has already diammonium fob pricing below the manufacturer's general cost line, so in effect simply relax export is just a temporary redress, can not fundamentally solve the problem of excess production capacity in China.

Secondly, cancel the export tariffs, under the current international environment and domestic status quo, can say will affect the price of exports, perhaps early we will obtain more profits, but the foreign party will further depress prices soon, even if not directly reduce the price of period, when there are tariffs, but serious, also can give yourself from that part of the duties of indirect to foreign.Actually cancel or do not cancel export duty, international demand is there, do not increase do not decrease, and even if can use low price to seize the market, also do not consider first what "two high capital" or give a foreigner "gift", have you considered the experience that ammonium sulfate is levied antidumping duty shortly before?

Finally, a substantial increase in the proportion of exports will increase the risk factors of market turbulence, and the domestic market in weak storage and peak season will become more unpredictable. Dealers, especially farmers, are weak in resisting risks, which is not conducive to the government's commitment to reduce the burden on farmers and increase their income.

To sum up, it is expected that the possibility of complete elimination of fertilizer export tariffs next year is low, only slightly tilted.We hope that the government will finally come up with effective new policies, but we also hope that our businesses can see further and do better.